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How trading fees change your break-even

A common exchange fee is 7% × contracts × P × (1 − P), rounded up per order. It is largest in cents near 50¢, but largest as a share of the price on cheap contracts and small orders.

The fee structure

fee ≈ 7% × contracts × P × (1 − P), rounded up to the cent per order

P is the price as a probability. The P × (1 − P) part is largest at 50¢ and shrinks toward 0¢ and 100¢. This is a common structure among event-contract exchanges; rates and rounding vary, so check your exchange's schedule.

Fee as a share of the price

PriceEst. fee per contractShare of price
5¢0.33¢6.7%
10¢0.63¢6.3%
25¢1.31¢5.3%
50¢1.75¢3.5%
75¢1.31¢1.8%
90¢0.63¢0.7%

Per-contract fees before rounding. On a real order, the total is rounded up to the cent.

The fee in cents is the same at 25¢ and 75¢, but it is about three times the share of the price on the cheaper side. Combos and long prices sit at the expensive end.

Small orders pay more per contract

Because the fee rounds up per order, a tiny order can pay much more than the formula suggests.

OrderFeePer contractShare of price
1 contract at 10¢$0.011.00¢10.0%
10 contracts at 10¢$0.070.70¢7.0%
100 contracts at 10¢$0.630.63¢6.3%
1 contract at 50¢$0.022.00¢4.0%
100 contracts at 50¢$1.751.75¢3.5%

What this means in practice

Include fees in every calculation

All three calculators estimate fees with this structure, and you can change the rate.

Open the combo calculator

Questions

How are prediction market fees calculated?

A common structure is 7% × contracts × P × (1 − P), rounded up to the cent per order, where P is the price as a probability. Rates and rounding vary by exchange.

Why do cheap contracts have higher fees?

In cents, they don't: the fee peaks at 50¢. As a share of the price, though, the fee is largest on cheap contracts, which is what affects your break-even.

Do small orders pay more in fees?

Often, yes. Rounding up per order means a 1-contract order at 10¢ can pay 1¢, a full 10% of the price.

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