Four questions to answer before you trade
- Headline or core? Headline CPI covers all items. Core CPI excludes food and energy. A month with a big swing in gas prices can push the two apart.
- Monthly or annual? The monthly change compares this month with last month. The 12-month change compares this month with the same month a year earlier.
- Seasonally adjusted or not? The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports the monthly change seasonally adjusted, and the headline 12-month change before seasonal adjustment. Check which one your contract uses.
- How is it rounded, and is "above" strictly above? BLS reports percent changes to one decimal place. A contract for "above 0.3%" may or may not pay on exactly 0.3%. Read the strike wording.
Revisions
Each February, with the January data, BLS updates its seasonal factors and revises seasonally adjusted figures for the previous five years. Contracts usually settle on the first published number, but read the settlement terms to be sure.
Range contracts are a field
CPI markets are often listed as ranges, such as 0.1%, 0.2%, 0.3%, 0.4% or more. Exactly one range will settle yes, so their prices should add up to about 100¢. Add them up: anything above 100¢ is the market's built-in markup, the same check as adding up a title market.
2026–27 CPI release dates (8:30 a.m. ET)
| Data for | Release date |
|---|---|
| October 2026 | Tue Nov 10, 2026 |
| November 2026 | Thu Dec 10, 2026 |
| December 2026 | Wed Jan 13, 2027 |
| January 2027 | Thu Feb 11, 2027 |
| February 2027 | Wed Mar 10, 2027 |
| March 2027 | Tue Apr 13, 2027 |
| April 2027 | Wed May 12, 2027 |
| May 2027 | Thu Jun 10, 2027 |
| June 2027 | Wed Jul 14, 2027 |
| July 2027 | Wed Aug 11, 2027 |
| August 2027 | Tue Sep 14, 2027 |
| September 2027 | Thu Oct 14, 2027 |
| October 2027 | Wed Nov 10, 2027 |
| November 2027 | Fri Dec 10, 2027 |
Source: BLS CPI release schedule. BLS can change dates, usually with at least a week's notice; confirm before trading.
Fees on range contracts
Individual ranges often trade at 10–30¢, where an estimated fee of 7% × P × (1 − P) takes 5–6% of the price. Buying several ranges to cover a band of outcomes multiplies that cost. See how fees change your break-even.
